No. 16 Oregon (0-0) @ No. 14 Boise State (0-0) – 10:15pm EST
LINE : Boise State by 4
Everyone remembers last years thriller which saw Boise amass a 24 point lead in the 4th quarter in Autzen Stadium – only to see Oregon come roaring back to lose by the slim margin of 37-32. Boise was a 10 point underdog that day and since then they seemed to have earned some respect as they find themselves the favorites in this year’s version of the home-and-home series. Speaking of home field, let’s not discount Boise’s. Since 2000, Boise is 56-2 at home straight up and an impressive 34-17 against the spread. Yes, this string does include many wins over teams from the WAC that don’t exactly blow you away… but it’s an impressive streak none the less and many of those wins came with talent inferior to that they currently possess.
Both teams return their starting QBs – Boise’s sophomore Kellen Moore (69.4%, 3486, 25:10) appears to have the talent edge over Oregon’s more dual threat option in junior Jermeiah Masoli (56.9%, 1744, 13:5, 851 yrds rushing) but since they run different systems its hard to rely solely on statistics to compare the two. Both are experienced and both have played respectably in some big games. Moore had a huge game against Oregon last year completing 24 of 36 for 381 and 3 TDs. Masoli was knocked out of the game early with a concussion.
I worry a little about Oregon’s ability to run the ball – which is what they rely on (61% of their plays last year). Oregon only returns 4 lineman from its two-deep last year and lost a lot in Unger, Lewis, and Tupou – all three of which were 1st or 2nd team all Pac-10. They also lost Jerimiah Johnson, their top back who gained over 1200 yards and averaged over 7 yards a carry last year. Fortunately, the do return LeGarrette Blount who may ease some of that pain and has the capability to carry the load with his 6′2 frame – but there are a lot of carries to go around in this offense. Oregon depends a lot on the run and the question is can Masoli and Blount carry the load behind an OLine that is pretty raw. Boise is relatively inexperienced in their front 7 this year, and so they may or may not be able to capitalize on that weakness.
Oregon is audibly embarrassed about their loss last year to Boise and somewhat angry of Masoli’s questionable injury in last year’s game, but I don’t know if they have enough to avenge it right off the bat this season. I still feel Oregon has better athletes than Boise does, but that will need to overcome some areas of inexperience (OL,DL) and the home field of Bronco Stadium. In the end Boise’s passing offense gets it done against a depleted Oregon D.
PREDICTION : Oregon 30, Boise State 37
Utah State (0-0) @ No. 19 Utah (0-0) – 9:00pm EST
LINE : Utah by 20.5
Utah is better obviously, but Utah State was very young last year and got better as the year went on. They also return 9 on offense and 7 on defense. Utah loses QB Brian Johnson and their top 3 receivers and I think they’re a bit overrated – you don’t just immediately replace Johnson at a school like Utah. I think Utah State covers.
PREDICTION : Utah State 20, Utah 33
OTHER PREDICTIONS
North Dakota State 17 @ Iowa State 33
